A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Each writes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has has something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
