Back in 2018, a mere eight words to energize the party's annual gathering and to show the party was falling out of love with its then leader. Although not precisely stirring rhetoric, the words were greeted with wild cheering as delegates stood for an impromptu ovation.
As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, remained at the lectern, visibly startled. He wasn't really accustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". Context, however, is key.
In that deeply polarized period of 2018, straying from his agreed text in this way was inevitably viewed as laying down the gauntlet to Jeremy Corbyn, who sought to prioritize Brexit voters in working-class seats above the Europhile sentiments within Labour. In just one speech, this seemingly cautious shadow Brexit secretary was transformed – if only for a while – into a political gambler who championed most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he would later replace.
The Evolution in Position and Closed Issues
In the years since, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue had been settled by the previous year’s national vote. And, at the last one, he consistently stressed unbreakable pledge promises that ruled out rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.
Similar to Corbyn, his strategy has been to pursue pro-Leave voters in target constituencies, even if polling evidence indicates a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.
Pressure Building on the EU
However, the tables have turned and the prime minister’s turn to be an embattled party leader. While Europe may not be the central crisis in UK politics, a lid which was tightly sealed since Brexit is beginning to rattle again.
The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up the rhetoric about the devastation that leaving the EU has caused to Britain's economic standing. It’s a useful stick to criticize Nigel Farage, who now rarely mentions how leaving the EU was his primary goal and remains his only real achievement.
Nevertheless, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has left Britain with a national economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller than if it were still in the EU, towers over the minor adjustments thus far implemented by ministers. Starmer’s so-called re-set deal negotiated with the EU in 2024 offers economic benefits quantified in fractions of a percent.
Internal Pressure and Ambitious Proposals
The chancellor is among those trying to overcome entrenched Home Office resistance to a broader scheme designed to boost growth program for young people by which young people can move between the UK and the EU for work or study.
David Lammy muses openly about the “self-evident” benefits of joining a customs union with the EU, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the powerful finance committee, recently supported a Liberal Democrat motion on joining one.
Although the Europe minister, who oversees UK-EU relations, now present at every cabinet meeting, insists the red lines remain unchanged, there exist avenues to work around them. One idea would be to announce the start of negotiations now for a more ambitious agreement, for inclusion in the next manifesto, with implementation only if Labour won a fresh mandate.
The Prime Minister's Fundamental Scepticism
Yet, Starmer has most recently damping it all down again by warning rejoining a European customs area could undermine the commercial agreements with America, which he views as signature achievements of his premiership.
It is understood that the PM’s scepticism go still deeper, and is rooted in several key concerns.
- First, he thinks a customs pact is now significantly more difficult because his ministers actively diverging from European rules across a range of policy areas, like environmental standards.
- Second, the exorbitant price demanded from Britain to join the EU’s new defence fund and the subsequent collapse in talks has convinced UK negotiators that former EU partners have little interest in offering favorable terms with Britain than in demonstrating that leaving the EU was a mistake.
- Lastly, the new US national security strategy, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is viewed by some influential figures in Downing Street as a reason for the UK to keep its distance from the EU.
A Bizarre Strategy and Geopolitical Considerations
This strange and concerning American strategy paper asserts Europe is threatened by “civilizational erasure” due to immigration. It contains a single mention to Britain, placed beside a suggestion that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in our politics to encourage the rise of “patriotic” parties.
However, instead of concluding that this makes the US an undependable ally, ministers reportedly fear that aligning closer with Europe would destabilise geopolitics further by endangering fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.
Leadership Speculation and The Ghost of 2018
All of which brings us back to the conference of 2018. Starmer has always said his speech was not an attempt for the leadership but simply an attempt to keep open the possibility of staying in the EU in a future vote. In fact, in those days, he still supported a “bespoke customs union deal” similar to the one he currently seems to reject.
But it’s not been lost on Downing Street have noticed that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would be a candidate in any leadership election, is among a clutch of cabinet ministers signaling they desire greater ambition regarding the EU.
Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another likely contender in a contest for the top job, maintain she refuses to comment on her position on a customs union because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.
The Obvious Danger & A Prudent Reminder
The risk is clear. If Starmer rules out more meaningful steps towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to occupy the space where most of the party's supporters reside.
It would be wise for Starmer to recall the effect just a few words had for him in 2018. There are options for a major proposal on EU relations which the PM ought to consider; he should explore them himself, before someone else adopt them as their own.
